James Salter

The Local Result

I forgot to mention our local result, Esher & Walton:

As a safe Tory seat, the Conservative hold is unsurprising. What is interesting though is the crash in their majority, down from 25.4% in 2001 to 16.1% this time. That’s quite a change!

There’s been a swing of 5.2% to the Liberal Democrats with them doing much better than last time, moving from a very close third position up to second place with Labour being pushed well down into third. Also, a 1.3% protest vote emerges for the MRLP … strangely though they weren’t even in last place.

Letters to the Leaders

So, what advice would you give to the leaders as a result of last night? Here’s a few notes from me:

Tony Blair:

Dear Tony,Happy Birthday and congratulations on your third term. The country has spoken: you may still be in power but you’ve won with less votes than any other winning party before. With your reduced majority, you’re not going to be able to “bully through” anything you want anymore. Proposals such as your ID card scheme could be in for a rough ride. You’ve got to start listening to people. You might have heard people mentioning the term “back benchers”. Maybe you should find out what that means, because they might come in handy.

Good luck!
James

Michael Howard:

Dear Michael,Well done for all your efforts. Remember though, you’re not in power. You’re supposed to be the Opposition. At times, we’ve not really seen that in the last parliament. You’ll need to do better this time around if you want to make any progress back into power. Many commentators are saying you’re too old to be party leader come the next election, so for goodness sake choose a decent successor. Unfortunately, politics really is about personalities these days.

Good luck!
James

Charles Kennedy:

Dear Charles,Congratulations on the result, your best for eighty years! Mind you, you could have done better. You had a fantastic opportunity to capitalise on the country’s anti-war feelings, but you messed it up a bit. Also, be careful not to jump the gun. You were a bit too quick to claim wins in seats that didn’t eventually go your way last night. And are you sure we really have entered an era of three party politics? In the new parliament, you’ll need to work hard to become a real challenge to the government.

Good luck!
James

Five more years?

With 619 of 646 seat declared, the vast majority of the General Election results are now in. Labour have won “a historic third term”, but they’ve been hit hard with the loss of 47 seats. The Conservatives had a better night, gaining 36 seats but loosing 3. The Liberal Democrats gained 16 seats and lost 5, so they’re quite happy too with their best result for eighty years.

So Mr Blair was wrong: the Iraq War seems to have been a big issue for the electorate (as if he didn’t really believe it would be). That’s perhaps illustrated best by George Galloway’s victory in Bethnal Green, plus the big swings (in votes if not seats) away from Labour and particularly towards the Liberal Democrats.

Tony and co may well be victorious, but the majority of the country will be waking up disappointed this morning. Tom’s done a few calculations to this effect - less than a quarter of the country want Labour in power, yet because of the system, they have over half the seats in parliament. In fact, Labour have won power with the lowest percentage of the vote ever for a winning party.

So what happens now? Will this really prove to be a turning point? Is it downhill from here for Labour? Could the Liberal Democrats become the Opposition at the next election? Has Michael Howard done enough to stay as Conservative leader for the next parliamentary term? Its the dawn of a new Parliament and everything is up for grabs.

Time for sleep

OK, I need a few hours rest. As it stands Labour are being hit hard, Lib Dems are gaining lots of votes and the Tories have won a few seats.

The BBC’s prediction is Lib Dem 59, Conservatives 209, Labour 357. A forcasted Labour majority of 58.

We’ll see in the morning.

Sorry Tom, still no result for Cardiff South & Penarth

Coming in fast

The results are starting to come in faster now … Labour have lost a seat to Conservatives, and generally lost a lot of votes to the Lib Dems. The results so far:

Labour=32
Lib Dem=2
Conservative=1
Others=1

Four in so far

Interesting results so far. Labour have held all 4 seats declared so far, but they’ve lost votes in numerical terms in each constituency. Early indications look like people are swinging towards Lib Dem.